Adam (00:00.534)
Welcome back to “Simplifying the State,” the podcast where we break down politics so you don’t have to sit through 50-minute news segments or fall into a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories. As always, I’m Adam Watson.

Nicholas (00:12.307)
And I’m Nicholas Perrin.

Adam (00:15:746)

Okay, Nicholas, what do Florida’s first and sixth congressional districts and the state of Wisconsin all have in common?

Nicholas (00:23.221)
They’re territories of the United States? Well, part of the United States’ territory at least.

Adam (00:31.310)
Technically correct—but the answer we were looking for is that they all had special elections recently. And that’s what today’s episode is all about.

So, Nicholas, you want to give us a quick rundown of how special elections work in the U.S.?

Nicholas (00:46.709)
Yeah, I can do that. Special elections are held to fill a vacant seat in public office—whether that’s in Congress, state supreme courts, or elsewhere. The first House special election was held on June 22, 1789.

On average, we see around 13 House special elections every two years. As of now, there have been 1,529 of them.

Special elections can also serve as a political forecast—a glimpse into public opinion ahead of midterms or general elections. Historically, they often align with broader political shifts. For example, in the run-up to the 1959 midterms, Democrats were winning special elections, and they went on to perform strongly that year.

So it’s worth paying attention to special elections—they can give us a hint at what’s coming. But how does that connect to what’s going on today, Adam?

Adam (02:03.186)
Yeah, I’ll get into that in a second. But first—how are special elections called? Is it something mandated by the Constitution? Are they triggered by governors, the president, or someone in Congress?

Nicholas (02:18.747)
At the state level, I believe they’re called by the governor. Though I’m not totally sure what happens if the governor is being replaced.

Adam (02:38.424)
Right—for congressional elections, it’s the governor who calls them. So, whether it’s a Senate or House vacancy, it’s up to the state’s governor.

Nicholas (02:49.181)
Yeah. And I think the same applies to state Supreme Court vacancies.

Adam (02:53.378)
Right—but not the U.S. Supreme Court. That’s an appointed position, not an elected one.

Nicholas (02:58.132)
Yeah.

Nicholas (03:02.703)
And when a governor dies, the lieutenant governor takes over, and the chain of succession kicks in.

Adam (03:05.602)
Exactly. So, here’s what’s happening now:

Mike Waltz was appointed national security advisor, and Matt Gaetz—after unsuccessfully trying to become attorney general—ended up resigning. That triggered two special elections in Florida’s first and sixth congressional districts.

Republicans won both races, but by smaller margins than Trump did in 2024. They were also outraised by their Democratic opponents. Part of that is because special elections usually attract a more tuned-in, higher-propensity electorate—people who vote in every election, not just the big ones like the presidential race.

And those midterm-style voters often lean more Democratic. So that’s one reason the Republican margins shrank. But another factor could be backlash to some of Trump’s more controversial policies.

Then there’s Elise Stefanik, who Trump nominated to become U.N. Ambassador. There was concern that if she stepped down, her seat might flip in a special election—especially with Republicans already struggling to pass the president’s agenda due to their slim majority.

So Trump pulled her nomination, and she’s staying in the House.

Adam (05:55.886)
Also worth noting: Wisconsin held a state Supreme Court election. Technically, these are nonpartisan, but the candidates were clearly aligned—one had conservative leanings, the other liberal.

Both parties backed their preferred candidates, and the liberal candidate won. Elon Musk had donated heavily to the conservative-leaning candidate, including giving $1 million checks to registered Republicans, which sparked controversy.

Some claimed it may have violated the state constitution, which says you can’t pay someone to vote.

Nicholas (06:49.971)
Yeah, there were concerns that it might’ve been illegal.

Adam (06:56.006)
Right. Not sure if anything came of it, but it definitely stirred the pot.

So, to recap: Republicans won the two special House elections in Florida, but by narrower margins. In Wisconsin, the liberal candidate won the Supreme Court seat despite heavy spending from the right.

Nicholas (07:19.711)
So, based on all that, do you think these results give us any insight into what might happen in the midterms? Or is it still too early to say?

Adam (07:32.492)
It’s hard to say definitively. Historically, the president’s party tends to underperform in the midterms, especially in the House.

The Senate is trickier—it depends on the specific map. Right now, only a few states look competitive: Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine.

Georgia is held by Ossoff, Maine by Susan Collins, and I’m blanking on who holds North Carolina, but those are likely to be the battlegrounds.

And again, midterm electorates tend to favor Democrats. So based on trends and the Republicans’ slim House majority, it’s not unlikely that Democrats could regain control in 2026. But a lot depends on the political climate at the time.

Nicholas (09:10.511)
And one more question—back to Wisconsin. Do you think Musk’s failed intervention could cause a rift between him and Trump?

Adam (09:36.322)
I doubt it. Musk’s support didn’t seem to help the candidate, and he’s not exactly popular with the general public right now. I think I saw a poll where something like 60–70% of Americans disagreed with him.

So yeah, it probably didn’t help—but I haven’t seen any signs that it’s causing tension between Musk and Trump publicly. Maybe there’s something going on behind the scenes, but it hasn’t surfaced yet.

All right—that wraps up today’s episode of Simplifying the State. We’ll be back next week with a new topic, so stay tuned.