In this episode of “Simplifying the State,” Adam and Nicholas break down the stunning election results that put Donald Trump back in the White House. What does this unexpected win mean for both parties and the future of U.S. politics?

PODCAST TRANSCRIPT

ADAM: Welcome back to “Simplifying the State.” I’m Adam Watson.

NICHOLAS: I’m Nicholas Perrin.

ADAM: Okay, so big week. Election results have come in. The first thing we’re going to do is break down what the results are. In the presidential race, Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States. Currently, all states have reported their electoral votes. Donald Trump has won all seven swing states, those states giving him 312 electoral votes. Kamala Harris got only 226. Since Donald Trump got more than 270, he is now president-elect.

Right now he is on track to win the popular vote but by smaller margins than was predicted earlier this week, sitting at about 74.7 million votes, whereas Kamala Harris is sitting at 71.1 million. He is on track to possibly be the first Republican to win the popular vote since Bush in 2004. But this was one of the largest Republican victories since Reagan in 1984.

Looking at the Senate, the Republicans have at least a 53 majority to the Democrats’ 46. We are still waiting for Arizona to report the results of that Senate race. The states that were the swing states and the ways they went: Montana went to the Republicans – they flipped that seat from the Democrats. They also flipped Ohio and West Virginia. They also flipped Pennsylvania away from the Democrats. But the Democrats managed to hold on to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. And so long as it stays the way it is right now, they are looking to hold on to Arizona as Ruben Gallego has a lead, but not a massive lead, over Carey Lake in the Arizona Senate race.

Nothing big in governor races. Looking at ballot measures just here in Missouri, since that’s where we are right now: Missouri Amendment 2, that’s still yet to have been called right now. It’s at 50.1%. Amendment 3 was voted yes on. Missouri Amendments 5 and 6 were voted no. And Missouri Amendment 7 was voted yes on. Then Proposition A was approved.

For nationwide ballot measures, the most interesting was Florida, in my opinion, as though a majority wanted to legalize abortion and weed in that state, it did not meet the threshold of 60%. I think 57% voted for it.

Real quick, house races. So far, not all of the house races have been called. A majority has not been reached by another party yet. But it does look like the Republicans will hold on to the House. They are currently at 213 and the Democrats are currently at 203. I’m not sure how many races have yet to be called, but it does look like the Republicans will maintain the House of Representatives. Okay. So Nicholas, what was your reaction to waking up just seeing the news? Let’s get our reactions. What was your reaction?

NICHOLAS: Well, my reaction based on what I saw the previous night was to be expected. I did not expect such a sweep in all the battleground states though. That was a big shock to me. I thought that maybe the Democrats might have had a chance in keeping the Senate, but yeah, it was not looking good for them and it did not turn out well for them.

ADAM: Yeah. I had a slightly different reaction. I went into the night thinking both hadn’t even shot, right? When I went to bed, none of the battleground states had been called. I went to bed at about 10:30 p.m. I woke up at like 2 a.m. for whatever reason, I don’t know. And then I saw that they had called Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina much sooner than I think anyone had anticipated. I think we anticipated this to drag on.

[STUDENT INTERVIEWS]

ADAM: We’re going to play a couple of interviews and listen to what some students had to say about their reactions to the election.

[Interview with Ella]

ADAM: What’s your first name and grade?
ELLA: Ella. Nine.

ADAM: So, overall, how do you think the night went?
ELLA: Pretty good.

ADAM: Was it surprising? Did you think it would go a different way?
ELLA: I thought it would be a little more even. It wasn’t one-sided; it was kind of a blowout.

ADAM: Right. Did you think it would take longer to get the results?
ELLA: Yeah. I didn’t think Walz’s state would go against him, but I think they did.

ADAM: Oh, Minnesota is Democrat; I think you’re thinking of Wisconsin.

ELLA: Yeah, oh yeah.

ADAM: What about your family—did they expect the outcome, or was it a surprise for them?
ELLA: I don’t think my family knew what was going to happen. They were kind of unsure, like with Hillary before. She was winning until she lost. So, I think they just didn’t know what to expect.

[Interview with Connor]

ADAM: So, what’s your name and grade?
CONNOR: My name is Connor, and I’m a sophomore.

ADAM: Okay. So, how do you think the night went in general?
CONNOR: It was disappointing for me because, you know, I was raised in a left-leaning household.

ADAM: Were the results surprising, or did you kind of expect that to happen?
CONNOR: I expected it to happen. I mean, I knew that Kamala probably wasn’t going to win the election from the start.

ADAM: Were there any shocking moments during the night?
CONNOR: I wasn’t keeping up with it live, so I wasn’t shocked by any of it.

ADAM: How did you find out, then?
CONNOR: I just woke up in the morning and checked, and I was like, yeah, that tracks.

ADAM: So, your initial reaction was figuring that was going to happen?
CONNOR: Yeah. And I’m not happy about it, but I figured it would happen. I can live with it, I think. I’ll try my best.

ADAM: Did your family think this was what was going to happen, or was it a surprise for them too?
CONNOR: I think we were kind of predicting what would happen. They were all saying, yeah, as much as we wanted Kamala to win, none of them thought it would happen.

[Interview with Anna & Reagan]

ADAM: So, could you please say your first name and your grade?
ANNA: I’m Anna McAndrew, and I’m a senior.
REAGAN: I’m Reagan Sparks, and I’m a junior.

ADAM: So, looking at last night, did it go the way you thought it would go, or was it a surprise?
ANNA: I feel like it went the way that I probably thought it was going to go. I think I was pretty split on how it would turn out, but for the most part, it went how I expected.
REAGAN: Yeah, same here.

ADAM: Was this like you woke up and saw who won, or were you up until 2 a.m.?
ANNA: I was following it until maybe like 9:30, and then I just felt like I knew who was going to win, so I went to bed.
REAGAN: I followed it for a while, about 9:30 too, and then I fell asleep. But I woke up around midnight, checked the results, and couldn’t go back to sleep until about 2. Then I finally fell asleep and woke up to see the results.

ADAM: Looking at the people who live in your household, did they think it was going to go the way it did, or was it also a surprise?
ANNA: I think my parents wanted it to go one way, but I don’t think any of us had a lot of faith in it going either way. Honestly, we were just waiting to see what would happen.
REAGAN: Yeah, my family was the same. They wanted it to go one way, and it didn’t. We woke up pretty disappointed, but we kind of saw it coming. We were cautiously optimistic, but it just didn’t go our way.

ADAM: What about the election ballot measures, like Amendment 3? Do you know how that went?
ANNA: Yeah, I woke up excited about Amendment 3 passing. I think that’s really important. I care a lot about reproductive rights, so that was exciting.
REAGAN: That was probably the one good thing we got out of the election this year—Amendment 3 and the abortion ban being flipped in Missouri. That was pretty great.
ANNA: Agreed. I’m hopeful that our reproductive rights will be protected for now.

[CONTINUED DISCUSSION]

ADAM: So, you heard those interviews. There was a mix of surprise and expectation. Some people anticipated the results; others were caught off guard. I think most were shocked by the sweeping nature of Donald Trump’s victory in this election.

It’s going to lead to a lot of reflection for the Democrats as they figure out their path forward, especially since they lost every single swing state. Demographics-wise and vote-share-wise, North Carolina was one of the states Donald Trump won most decisively. He got 51% to Kamala Harris’s 47%, with a margin of just under 200,000 votes.

The closest battleground state, I believe, was Wisconsin. There, Trump got 49.7%, and Harris got 48.8%. Michigan was also close, with Trump at 49.7% and Harris at 48.3%. So, Wisconsin edged out as the narrowest race.

Nicholas, what do you think the vote share says about this election?

NICHOLAS: I think it highlights the shortcomings of the Democratic Party’s strategy. They presented themselves as a stable, status quo option, while Trump positioned himself as a populist, right-wing candidate that resonated with many voters.

Despite some missteps, like during the debates, Trump ran a campaign that appealed to his base. His strategy paid off, especially as he managed to harness organic support from voters who felt left behind.

ADAM: Yeah, and now it looks like Republicans will achieve a trifecta in Congress. I’ve noticed Democrats already strategizing on how to handle the next 70 days while they still hold power in the Senate and White House, and how to deal with the new administration and Congress moving forward.

It’s extremely significant because, despite their strong ground game—massive fundraising, door-knocking, and outreach efforts—the Democrats couldn’t match the Republicans’ organic voter turnout.

Republicans leveraged a different media strategy, focusing on podcasts and platforms that reach everyday audiences. They bypassed traditional cable news, which only politically tuned-in people watch. Democrats might need to adopt a similar approach going forward.

Nicholas, earlier, you mentioned this might represent a rejection of liberalism. Could you elaborate on that?

NICHOLAS: I don’t think it’s a total rejection of liberalism or center-left ideas. However, since Hillary Clinton’s campaign, Democrats have been putting forth similar candidates with moderate platforms. That approach has yielded okay results, but not great ones.

This time, many voters likely saw Joe Biden’s economic policies as ineffective, making them turn to Trump’s promises—whether or not those promises were realistic or even credible. Trump positioned himself as a populist “for the people,” and while that’s debatable, the Democrats didn’t adopt a strong enough populist message to counteract it.

If they had taken a more progressive approach, like Bernie Sanders’ style of campaigning, they might have stood a better chance in this election.

ADAM: Yeah, and racism.

NICHOLAS: or did not go to the polls for various issues, reasons, et cetera. But I do think that there is probably a misogynistic part or possibly a racist part to it, which I don’t think should probably be overlooked. Going forward, I’m not sure. I think there was also a concern that Donald Trump is not a typical politician, or at least he’s not viewed as a typical politician. Kamala Harris was viewed as a typical politician. And I think that people did not want a typical politician to be reelected.

ADAM: Right. Would possibly, depending upon how he reacted, there could have been civil unrest if he had not conceded the election, et cetera. Okay. Thank you so much for listening to Simplifying the State. We’ll be back next time breaking down more of Trump’s policies, what that could mean going into January 2025, what possibly his first hundred days will look like, what the Republicans might want to do with their possible new trifecta in the government and all that stuff. All right, see you next time.