Adam (00:00.324): Welcome back to “Simplifying the State”! I’m Adam Watson. Today, we’ll be talking about the race that could decide the Senate, Kamala Harris’s recent town hall in Pennsylvania and reports that Trump might have quoted Hitler. I know—it sounds wild.

Nicholas (00:03.342): And I’m Nicholas Perrin.

Adam (00:30.512): Alright, first up is the Senate race, with election day just nine days away. According to 538’s latest projections, Republicans are favored to take the Senate—they’re winning in about 88 out of 100 model runs. Meanwhile, Democrats only manage a win in about 12 out of 100.

The projections highlight a few key factors: Republicans have a better map in states like West Virginia, where they’re expected to win easily, along with Montana. As long as they hold onto seats in Texas, Florida and Nebraska, they’re likely to secure a majority.

For Democrats, it’s a tougher climb. They’ll need to hold all Senate seats in swing states—Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania—and ideally keep their seat in Ohio, which is currently up in the air. There’s also an independent candidate in Nebraska who’s polling close behind the Republican. If he wins and ends up caucusing with Democrats, it could be helpful, but it’s still a long shot. So, Nicholas, what’s your take on where things stand?

Nicholas (02:28.642): Right now, it’s definitely looking better for Republicans. There’s still a scenario where Democrats keep a tie, especially if that independent caucuses with them. But otherwise, Republicans are in a strong position.

Adam (03:11.152): Right. Now, let’s talk about Kamala Harris’s recent town hall with undecided voters in Pennsylvania. Anderson Cooper hosted the event on CNN. With nine days left, the Harris campaign is focusing on connecting with undecided voters, especially since polling shows Trump narrowing the gap in swing states. Harris is also trying to appeal to young men—especially young Black and Latino men—where her support could be stronger.

From what I’ve heard, the town hall had mixed reviews. Pundits were a bit critical, saying she didn’t fully deliver. But actual attendees seemed impressed; one woman who previously voted for Trump now says she’ll vote for Harris after hearing her speak, saying she came across as genuine and likable. That seems to be an asset for Harris—she tends to do well in front of undecided voters. Nicholas, what do you think the impact of this town hall might be?

Nicholas (05:40.154): Harris was definitely reaching out to undecided voters here, and some, like that woman, may shift to her side after seeing her in person. Harris mostly focused on contrasting herself with Trump rather than diving into specific policies, which might be effective for building likability, but some voters do want to hear more detail.

Adam (06:38.148): Right. Some thought she played it a bit too safe and missed opportunities to make a stronger impression with bold answers, which could have made for shareable moments on social media. Both campaigns are in high gear right now, putting the pressure on for these last few days. Harris was even in Texas last night with Beyoncé, drawing a crowd of 30,000. Meanwhile, Trump held a rally and also recorded an episode of Joe Rogan’s podcast. It’s interesting to see how candidates are using platforms like podcasts to reach people.

Adam (08:37.282): Now, let’s move to our last topic. Reports have emerged from Trump’s former Chief of Staff, John Kelly, suggesting Trump shares fascist tendencies and even allegedly said he wants “generals like Hitler had.” This statement was backed up by a letter from 13 former Trump administration officials. Nicholas, what do you think the impact of these claims could be?

Nicholas (09:18.414): It’s obviously a bad look for Trump, but Kelly has hinted at concerns like this before without much traction. The increased media focus might sway some undecided voters, but I doubt it’ll make much of a dent among Trump’s core supporters.

Adam (10:03.918): Yeah, Trump’s faced similar accusations before without losing much support. But undecided voters often make up their minds in the final weeks, and if this story is the top headline, it could be significant. Either way, we’ll see if it has any effect as we get closer to election day.

Adam (10:45.000): Remember, election day is less than two weeks away! The best way to have your voice heard is to vote. Whether it’s for president or your local school board, every election matters. Make a plan, find your polling place, and go vote!

Thanks for listening to “Simplifying the State”! We’ll be back next week to break down the last few days before election day. See you next time!