Adam (00:01.356):  

Welcome to Simplifying the State, I’m Adam Watson.

Nicholas (00:04.561):  

And I’m Nicholas Perrin.

Adam (00:06.72):  

Typically, the summer before an election is pretty uneventful—just the usual conventions and some headlines. But this year was different. Since we missed some of the most crucial moments of the election season, we decided to dedicate this episode to catching up on everything we missed. Let’s start with the first major event of the summer. 

On May 31st, former President Trump was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, a felony in New York. Nicholas, how do you think this could impact the election? This is unprecedented—a major party candidate running with convictions and facing additional pending trials.

Nicholas (01:11.385):  

This is a first. Right after the verdict, polls showed that over half of Americans doubted the validity of the case, so I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the election.

Adam (01:42.178):  

Right. Trump also saw some of his biggest fundraising numbers right after the verdict. It’s unlikely to change the minds of those already against or for him. Some polls asked voters to rank the importance of his criminal cases in deciding their vote, and this one ranked as one of the least important. The election interference case seemed to be the one that might sway voters, but with that stalled, it’s hard to see much impact on the base or swing voters.

Then on June 27th, Trump and Biden participated in a CNN debate, covering domestic and foreign policy issues. The debate didn’t go well for either side. Trump was caught lying repeatedly—about 30 times, according to fact-checkers—and Biden struggled with his performance. Afterward, pressure mounted on Biden, leading Representative Lloyd Doggett of Texas to call for him to step aside. Nicholas, how do you think that debate affected the election?

Nicholas (03:57.649):  

The debate was the last straw for many people. It hurt Biden significantly, and the subsequent calls for him to step down only worsened the situation, eventually leading to the current Democratic nominee.

Adam (04:25.422):  

Yeah, there were major concerns about Biden’s age and his ability to serve another four years or effectively challenge Trump. Initially, you didn’t see much opposition within the Democratic Party, but that changed after the debate. Polling showed he lost a few points, which, in a close race, was damaging. The situation became unsustainable, leading to Biden stepping aside.

On July 1st, the Supreme Court delivered a verdict in Donald Trump v. The United States, ruling that presidents have immunity for official acts. Nicholas, how do you think this ruling could impact not just the election, but the power and perception of the presidency going forward?

Nicholas (06:10.567):  

With Trump’s clear majority in the Supreme Court, any actions taken against him could end up going nowhere. The vagueness of the ruling allows the Court to interpret it in ways that could protect Trump while leaving other candidates vulnerable.

Adam (06:52.92):  

Right. Justice Sotomayor, in her dissent, warned about the dangers of a president feeling empowered to violate criminal law, knowing they have immunity. She expressed fear for democracy, suggesting this could elevate the president’s status beyond the people. It’s a significant shift in the balance of power.

Moving on to July 13th in Butler, Pennsylvania, where a man named Thomas Crooks attempted to assassinate former President Trump. Trump was wounded in the ear, and while Crooks was killed by a Secret Service sniper, one person lost their life, and several others were injured. How do you think this incident will impact the election and the way political rallies are conducted?

Nicholas (09:45.837):  

Trump used the incident to garner more support, as people naturally felt sympathy for him. It’s unclear how it will change rally security, but I suspect we’ll see tighter measures moving forward.

Adam (10:20.184):  

It definitely underscores the deep divisions in the country. The FBI found that Crooks had a list of other political candidates, including Joe Biden. So, while the initial target was Trump, it wasn’t solely about him. This highlights the broader issue of political violence.

Shortly after this, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Trump announced his running mate, JD Vance, a Senator from Ohio. What do you think of Trump’s choice?

Nicholas (11:47.473):  

It was an interesting choice. Vance is an unpopular pick among most Americans.

Adam (12:03.906):  

It feels like a choice Trump made personally, possibly influenced by his son, Don Jr., who’s close with Vance. Polls were showing Trump was likely to win, so it seems like he picked someone to energize his base rather than appeal to new voters. However, Vance’s unpopularity could be a liability—he’s the first vice-presidential pick in history to score negative points in post-announcement polls.

After the RNC, Biden faced mounting pressure within his party, including from Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Facing these challenges and after being diagnosed with COVID, Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. How do you think this will impact the race going forward?

Nicholas (15:35.372):  

Since Harris took over, her popularity has soared, much more than Biden’s. It was a good move for the Democratic Party and puts more pressure on Trump, who now has to adjust his strategy.

Adam (16:33.442):  

Definitely. There was concern that Biden could drag down other races, so this move likely saved some up-ballot and down-ballot candidates. After Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’s campaign quickly gained momentum. In 24 hours, they raised around $87 million, and by the end of July, they had pulled in $320 million. This speaks to the new enthusiasm within the Democratic Party.

As the Veep Stakes began, names like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Mark Kelly, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg came up. But Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. What do you think of this decision?

Nicholas (19:50.451):  

It was unexpected, but it seems to be a good move. Walz wasn’t a front-runner, but he’s a solid choice.

Adam (20:15.182):  

Yeah, typically candidates pick someone from a swing state, so choosing someone from solid-blue Minnesota was surprising. But I think Harris prioritized working with someone she trusted and had a good rapport with, and Walz fit that bill. Their rallies show they have a strong connection, which is crucial for a successful campaign.

After this, the DNC officially nominated Harris, with speeches from Democratic heavyweights like Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack and Michelle Obama. One figure we haven’t mentioned yet is RFK Jr., who had two big stories this summer. The first is a bit unusual. While upstate in New York, he found a dead bear cub on the side of the road, decided to put it in his trunk, and then brought it to Central Park, where he staged it as if it had been run over by a bike. He shared this story on social media, which was…odd, to say the least.

Nicholas (23:15.557):  

Hmm.

Adam (23:37.714):  

Yeah, it got a lot of attention for being bizarre. But the more politically relevant story is that he dropped out of the race and endorsed Donald Trump. He was polling between 7 and 13 percent, making him the most viable third-party candidate, even if his chances of winning were slim. What do you make of his decision to step aside and endorse Trump?

Nicholas (26:43.301):  

I didn’t expect it, but it makes sense. He was taking more votes from Trump than from the Democratic candidate, so endorsing Trump might have seemed more beneficial to him.

Adam (27:18.798):  

Yeah, it was a surprising move. The bear cub story wasn’t politically relevant, but it was too strange not to mention. What do you think?

Nicholas (27:24.113):  

I can’t argue with that. It’s definitely an odd story.

Nicholas (27:30.003):  

I’m just not sure it’s podcast material, but…

Adam (27:33.134):  

I think it’s a quirky story about a political figure, so why not include it? Anyway, this was a longer episode than usual, but we wanted to catch up on all the major events we missed over the summer. We’ll be back to our regular format next week, covering the latest events.

Nicholas (27:43.197):  

Great.

Adam (28:02.986):  

Thanks for listening to Simplifying the State. We’ll see you next time.

Nicholas (28:07.261):  

So long.